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Confidence lifts for third time in past month

May 23, 2017

Source: CommSec – Economic Insights

According to Commsec, the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.0 per cent to 110.5 in the latest week – the third rise in the past four weeks.

Confidence levels bounce around from week to week, but CommSec believes that broadly Aussie consumers are just feeling OK.

“If anything, consumers are finding it hard to get enthused. Which makes sense given that there hasn’t been much unambiguously positive news in recent times. The latest job figures were encouraging but some of the media focused on hours worked which eased in the latest month. Consumers are still working through the budget measures, in particular wondering what the bank levy means for them.”

“For retailers, the key positives were the lift in the outlook for family finances and the positive result on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item. In fact the survey result for spending intentions was above the “average” rating for the past three years. With consumers selective about what to buy, retailers are expected to keep downward pressure on selling prices.”

“The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.0 per cent to 110.5 in the week to May 20/21 after falling 2.6 per cent in the previous week. Confidence is down 4.5 per cent over the year and below the average of 113.2 since 2014.”

Three of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:

  • The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +1 to zero;
  • The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +19 to +21;
  • Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from -7 to -6;
  • Economic conditions over the next 5 years was steady at +1;
  • The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +33 to +36.

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